Since I began watching the show (between season 1 and 2) I've tried to come up with theories as to what's really going on. Most of them have been proven incorrect by now, and some of my theories have mutated to incorporate newly revealed bits of the story so far. Eventually I just gave up and figured I'd let the show develop on it's own without trying so hard to "figure it out".
I've read other people's theories online, and this guy Jason Hunter on the site http://www.timelooptheory.com/ has the most comprehensive and logical theory.
visit the site to read about it
http://www.timelooptheory.com/
and here's a link to an illustrated timeline.
http://www.timelooptheory.com/lost_timeline.jpg
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